China’s Slowing Economy Will Hit Sub-Saharan Africa’s Growth

International Monetary Fund

The IMF analytical note estimates that one percentage point decline in China’s growth rate could reduce average growth in sub-Saharan Africa by about 0.25 percentage points within a year.

China has forged deep economic ties with countries in sub-Saharan Africa over the past 20 years, making it the region’s largest single country trading partner. China buys one-fifth of the region’s exports—metals, minerals, and fuel—and provides most of the manufactured goods and machinery imported by African countries.

However, China’s recovery from the pandemic has slowed recently due to a property downturn and flagging demand for its manufactured goods as global growth has also slowed.

This matters for Africa. A one percentage point decline in China’s growth rate could reduce average growth in the region by about 0.25 percentage points within a year, according to the latest Regional Economic Outlook. For oil-exporters, such as Angola and Nigeria, the loss could be 0.5 percentage points on average.

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