In a recent survey conducted after President Biden stepped aside, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are neck and neck in the presidential race, separated by just one percentage point among likely voters.
Vice President Kamala Harris has started her 103-day campaign for the presidency in a near tie with former President Donald J. Trump, according to the latest New York Times/Siena College poll. This development has quickly united a previously divided Democratic Party following President Biden’s decision to abandon his re-election bid under party pressure.
The poll indicates that Democrats are rallying around Ms. Harris as the presumptive nominee, with only 14 percent preferring another option. An overwhelming 70 percent of Democratic voters want the party to consolidate behind her swiftly rather than engaging in a drawn-out nomination process.
Ms. Harris’s rapid consolidation of Democratic support has significantly narrowed the gap between her and Mr. Trump, who had a notable lead over Mr. Biden just a few weeks ago. The poll shows Ms. Harris receiving 93 percent support from Democrats, matching the support Mr. Trump has from Republicans.
Overall, Trump leads Harris 48 percent to 47 percent among likely voters, a marked improvement for Democrats compared to the early July Times/Siena poll, which showed Biden trailing by six percentage points after a poor debate performance. Among registered voters, Trump leads Harris 48 percent to 46 percent, down from a nine-point lead over Biden in the previous poll.
This poll captures a snapshot of a volatile and unpredictable presidential race. In recent weeks, Democrats have a new nominee, and Trump’s favorability rating has hit an all-time high in a national New York Times survey following his survival of an assassination attempt.
The race appears to have reset to its pre-debate state, with a narrow but steady Trump edge in national polling averages. However, the new poll suggests that Harris’s candidacy could reshape the political landscape for the 2024 election.
Ms. Harris is performing better than Biden among younger voters and nonwhite voters, groups where Biden struggled. However, there is concern that she might not maintain Biden’s strength among older voters, with some erosion in Democratic support among this demographic.
The poll shows Harris gaining about 60 percent support from voters under 30 and Hispanic voters. She leads among voters under 45 by 10 percentage points, a significant shift from three weeks ago when Trump had a slight edge over Biden with this group.
The nationwide survey did not provide specific insights into battleground states, but a Democratic candidate with stronger appeal to younger and more diverse voters could shift focus to Sun Belt states like Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, which were becoming less competitive for Biden.
Ms. Harris’s candidacy follows a tumultuous period in the Democratic Party. Biden stepped aside after a month of speculation about his mental fitness following a poor debate performance. Meanwhile, Trump survived an assassination attempt, named Senator JD Vance as his running mate, and accepted the Republican nomination.
Harris is on track for the Democratic convention next month, seeking to become the first woman, first Black woman, and first person of South Asian descent to serve as president.
“Her candidacy is historic,” said Summer Nesbitt, a 27-year-old tutor from Detroit. Nesbitt, who supports Harris, noted that while some of Harris’s appeals to Black voters feel forced, her candidacy remains significant.
Voter engagement has increased, with 64 percent of voters paying close attention to the campaign, up from 48 percent before the June debate. However, independents are less engaged compared to Democrats and Republicans.
Despite the nation’s bleak outlook, with 61 percent believing the country is on the wrong track, this is an improvement from recent months.
Harris faces challenges as the vice president during an economic downturn, with 75 percent of voters rating the economy as “fair” or “poor.” More voters view Trump as a strong leader compared to Harris.
Harris’s favorability rating has risen by 10 percentage points since February, now at 46 percent, higher than Biden’s but still trailing Trump’s. Views on Trump, Biden, and Harris are sharply divided along gender lines, with men favoring Trump and women favoring Biden and Harris.
Trump’s favorability rating increased to 48 percent, bolstered by his defiant response to the assassination attempt. Eddie Otzoy, a 29-year-old contractor from Los Angeles, switched his support to Trump after the incident, citing newfound pride in the country.
Nearly 90 percent of voters approve of Biden’s decision to exit the race, uniting the party behind Harris more effectively than Biden. Four in five Democrats support her candidacy, compared to 48 percent for Biden three weeks ago.
Biden’s exit has led to a sharp increase in his favorability rating, now at 43 percent, his best since 2022. In a multicandidate race, Harris and Trump are virtually tied, with Harris at 44 percent and Trump at 43 percent.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an independent candidate, has seen his support drop to 5 percent of likely voters, with no other third-party candidates above 1 percent.
Harris and Trump are both seen as intelligent and capable leaders, with Harris slightly ahead on intelligence. Neither candidate is viewed as capable of unifying the country, reflecting deep political polarization.
Key details of the Times/Siena poll:
- Surveyed 1,142 registered voters nationwide from July 22-24, 2024.
- Conducted by phone in English and Spanish, with 96 percent contacted via cellphone.
- Weighted responses to reflect the demographics of the voting population.
- Margin of sampling error among registered voters is ±3.3 percentage points.
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