How the Trump Rally Gunman Evaded Countersnipers: A 3-D Analysis:

How the Trump Rally Gunman Evaded Countersnipers: A 3-D Analysis

The New York Times conducted a detailed 3-D recreation to analyze the lines of sight for the countersniper teams and the would-be assassin at Donald J. Trump’s campaign rally in Butler, Pa., on July 13. The would-be assassin, Thomas Matthew Crooks, managed to secure a clear shot at the former president as the nearby countersniper teams failed to detect him in time.

Using drone photography, the Times built a 3-D model to reconstruct the lines of sight for Crooks and the three countersniper teams—two federal and one local. The analysis revealed that Crooks, 20, who appears to have used a drone to survey the site on the rally’s morning, exploited one of the few blind spots within rifle range of Trump, highlighting significant lapses in the event’s security planning.

Secret Service Director Kimberly A. Cheatle resigned on Tuesday after declining to answer lawmakers’ questions about the security breakdowns at a Capitol Hill hearing. Crooks, concealed by two trees and the slope of a warehouse roof, used the AGR International-owned warehouse complex outside the designated security perimeter.

One Secret Service team, stationed on the northernmost barn behind Trump, had been facing Crooks’s direction for 30 minutes before the violence erupted, as evidenced by social media videos verified by the Times. At one point, team members are seen standing and looking toward Crooks with binoculars.

Three days post-shooting, the Times captured drone footage to show how the trees might have obstructed the countersnipers’ view of Crooks. A spatial technique called viewshed analysis confirmed that Crooks chose a prime spot that kept him largely out of sight from the northern countersniper team as he prepared to fire.

South Barn Countersnipers’ Perspective

A second Secret Service countersniper team was positioned on a barn roof to the south and west, monitoring a different area initially facing away from Crooks. Video footage shows the countersnipers turning toward Crooks’s direction one minute and 35 seconds before the first shot was fired. The Times analysis revealed that the warehouse roof’s slope would have made it difficult for the south team to see Crooks as he crawled upward. Only the top of Crooks’s head would have been visible to either countersniper team while he was concealed behind the roof’s highest point.

Forty-two seconds after the shooting began, Secret Service agents can be heard saying “Shooter down” in video footage. Crooks was fatally shot by a Secret Service countersniper, likely from the south barn team, which had the best vantage point.

Local Law Enforcement Countersnipers’ View

A third group of three local law enforcement countersnipers was stationed in the same warehouse complex as Crooks, but in an adjacent building. The building had windows facing the side of the roof Crooks climbed. However, the countersnipers were positioned on the building’s opposite side, tasked with monitoring the crowd. From their position, Crooks would have been out of sight.

Additional videos and photos reviewed by the Times show what appears to be a fourth local law enforcement countersniper team approximately 1,000 feet from Crooks’s position on the roof. The Times could not confirm if this team fired during the shooting.

Crooks’s approach, crawling up the roof’s slight slope, kept him concealed from the Secret Service countersnipers most of the time. Once at the top, two trees provided additional cover from the north team.

Investigators reported that Crooks likely used a drone to survey the rally site before the shooting. The Secret Service did not use drones for aerial surveillance, according to Cheatle’s testimony on Monday.

Crooks managed to fire multiple shots in Trump’s direction, injuring Trump’s right ear. A rally attendee in the closest bleachers to Crooks was fatally shot in the head, and two others in the top row of bleachers to the south were also struck but survived.

Security Missteps

Two rows of chain-link fencing separated the Butler Farm Show property from the warehouse complex. It’s unclear if the Secret Service used the fencing to delineate security perimeters, but the AGR warehouses were excluded from the secure zone.

The warehouse complex, accessible to the public and adjacent to a state highway and major road, was monitored at the time of the shooting, according to Cheatle, though she did not specify by whom. An FBI investigation revealed that a local SWAT team spotted Crooks on the warehouse roof approximately 18 minutes before Trump took the stage. The Secret Service was informed of a potential “suspicious” person via radio, but it did not prevent Trump from taking the stage.

Methodology

The Times flew a drone over the site three days after the attempted assassination, using the captured imagery to create a 3-D model of the scene. The model incorporated ground measurements, satellite imagery, and references from photos and videos posted on social media. The positions of the gunman, countersniper teams, and victims were based on these references.

To determine the lines of sight, the Times conducted a viewshed analysis, calculating visible areas from specific locations in 3-D, considering obstructions. The analysis used a 1,000-foot radius from the countersnipers’ positions, encompassing the rally grounds and warehouse complex. Cameras were placed in the 3-D model at the approximate locations of the gunman and countersniper teams to simulate their views. The gunman’s location was based on where his body was found. The specific scopes used by the gunman or countersnipers are not known, and the 3-D renderings are approximate.