Hamas Chief Ismail Haniyeh Killed in Iran: What to Know and What’s Next?
Senior Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, 62, was assassinated early Wednesday in Iran, a development that threatens regional stability and heightens the risk of the Gaza war escalating into a broader conflict. Here is what we know about the assassination, the context, and the potential repercussions.
What Happened to Haniyeh and When?
At approximately 2 am local time (22:30 GMT) on Wednesday, Ismail Haniyeh was killed by an “airborne guided projectile.” His bodyguard was also killed. Haniyeh had traveled to Tehran to attend the inauguration of Iran’s President Masaoud Pezeshkian on Tuesday and was last seen at the ceremony.
Where in Iran Did It Happen?
The strike targeted the “special residences for war veterans in north Tehran” where Haniyeh was staying. Analysts suggest that the timing and location were chosen to embarrass Tehran. “What happened in Tehran was a significant breach for the Iranian security apparatus,” Abas Aslani, a fellow at the Center for Middle East Strategic Studies in Tehran, told Al Jazeera.
Who Was Haniyeh?
Ismail Haniyeh was a prominent figure in Hamas, serving as its political leader. He led Hamas to a legislative victory over the Fatah movement in 2006 but was dismissed after the West refused to work with Hamas. He was elected head of Hamas’s political bureau in 2017 and designated a “terrorist” by the US Department of State in 2018. Haniyeh lived abroad in Qatar since 2019, leading Hamas’s diplomatic efforts.
Who Killed Haniyeh?
While it remains unclear who exactly carried out the strike, Hamas and Iran have accused Israel. Israel has not commented on the assassination. Iranian officials have also blamed the US for supporting Israel. Analysts suggest that the sophisticated intelligence required for the operation indicates possible US assistance.
How Does This Impact the Israel-Gaza Conflict?
Haniyeh was a critical interlocutor in ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas, brokered by Qatar, the US, and Egypt. His assassination casts uncertainty over these talks, which were reportedly close to an agreement. “How can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side?” Qatar’s Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani posted on X.
Who Could Succeed Haniyeh?
Potential successors include Khaled Meshaal, a veteran Hamas official, and Khalil al-Hayya, an important figure closely associated with Haniyeh. Yahya Sinwar, responsible for the October 7 attacks on Israel, is expected to remain the commander in Gaza.
What’s the Wider Context?
Haniyeh’s killing came just hours after a strike on a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut. These targeted attacks have raised fears of further conflict in the region. “The assassination sends a message that Israel can reach various leaders of groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, even outside Gaza,” said Hasan Ayoub, a professor at An-Najah University.
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Reactions:
- Gaza and Palestine: Al Jazeera’s Hani Mahmoud reported that Haniyeh’s death is significant for Gaza, as he was leading ceasefire negotiations. He was seen as a pragmatic leader.
- Hamas: Senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri said, “This assassination aims to break the will of Hamas and our people. Hamas will continue on this path regardless of the sacrifices.”
- US: Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that the US was not involved in Haniyeh’s death. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin emphasized that the US would defend Israel if attacked.
- China: Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian condemned the assassination and called for a comprehensive ceasefire in Gaza.
- Turkey: Turkey’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs criticized Israel’s actions and warned of larger conflicts if the international community does not intervene.
What Comes Next?
- Short Term: Haniyeh’s body will be buried in Qatar after a funeral service in Tehran on Thursday. Iran has declared three days of public mourning.
- Long Term: Analysts foresee potential regional escalation. “An escalation seems inevitable,” Aslani said, noting that the killing undermines recent diplomatic efforts by Iran’s new president. The assassination may impact political dynamics in both Tehran and Washington.
The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh marks a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict, with implications that could reverberate across the Middle East and beyond.
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